BAD INDEX: mrtq13 (31-10-2008)

DSE/SEC ppl have started a very nasty down trend,and that down trend is still in existence...............It was a very bad step by them when they stepped in just to put market down couple of months ago............Such an immature step............God help the poor souls!

Now,see that they are begging traders/investors to buy back banks,as if we will buy whatever/whenever they want us to do that...........What a miserable situation. I have hardly ever heard that such responsible ppl like SEC/DSE authorities instruct traders/investors what to buy and when to buy............Clearly,the course of market trend has been changed by SEC/DSE itself. Now if the traders/investors don't buy bank,though they are at their lowest fundamentally,it is because traders/investors are in panic regarding index of 3000. This was created by those SEC/DSE monkeys!!!

So,they directly/indirectly are manipulating market and us-the traders/investors!!! We,the freak traders/investors,are always dancing with whatever they are wanting...................The freak show is set in a way as if they are in the "Mr. Know-it-all-headmaster" group,and we trader/investors are in the "dumb-fucking-assholes" group..............See the newpapers,media. Everyday everybody is shouting there that investors/traders are doing wrong(at whatever we are doing). Total chaos and confusion.................All of these are created by them............

-----------------------------------------------------------

All I can say,small traders' money is at stake. And if the small traders don't guard his/her money,he/she is gonna be always fucked up. And surely,for that,he/she is responsible. Have a look at this forum!! What is everyone doing here!!! Just throw one buy list writing "I have got this news from an authentic source that this stock is gonna rise...............etc..." And interesting to see that almost everyone jumps into it every now and then. Because that is the culture of our market,everybody says. And at the end,losing heavily is also a culture of our stock market(we forget to mention this). And if these very traders lose money in our market,then they/he/she shouldn't regret or repent. But unfortunately,traders do regret losing money...............Losing money isn't a great thing.

----------------------------------------------------------------

I do believe that staying with only a small group of stocks give us an edge in the market. Just have some fundamental analysis about the health of the companies of the chosen stocks.Then,go for long term investement in them. This is one of the best approaches. I have found even staying with three stocks throughout the years can give pretty good profit..........But technical approach regarding entry/exit,after the fundamental analysis is done,is a must if we want to enter at the optimal levels...............

----------------------------------------------------------------

Year back,you used to talk about Fundamental approach to me. Now you also talk about Technical Indicators. Year back,I used I used to talk about Technical indicators to you.Now after year,I talk about Fundamental approach also. What a turn around by both of us..... 
:)

----------------------------------------------------------
LONG TERM APPROACH :

I'm talking about long term trend change here, because I have plans to go for long term investment type approach in future(Technically and Fundamentally). So,I am glad to see that that DSE turning down and down. Because the more it goes down,the more some stocks will become undervalued from fundamental point of view.

And as a TA,I know no stocks can stay below year after year. So,I must chose some stocks to be in when they are at their low(fundamentally) and about to go up(technically).

DSE is not supporting the fundamentals now(except banks,almost all stocks are overvalued),which is actually reflected in technical indicators too. That is what I like in Technical indicators. It reflects current standing. Fundamental is the force behind a move. And technical is the visual exhibition of that move.

---------------------------------------------------
Short term and Mid term :

What goes down must come up...............DSE will come up!! But that will happen for short terms and mid terms only,it seems at the moment............Unless the banks hit the Index with force and get it above 3200/3300 with strength,there is little hope left from long term view point..................

The problem now is election and the change of gov and economy. Looks like we are entering a phaze of confusion and uncertainity. I hope you remember what happened year back before the election of that time. Market used to go up,and again turn down at that time almost on regular basis. Almost everyday market went nowhere.That was a bad market.And in a way,this is a bad market too. Because buys don't work much in such situation.

But small up moves are expected. How about two weeks or one month up moves. Well,this type of short term moves may exist in near future.Even a short term uptrend can start from Sunday. And we can profit from the move. But how much profit-10%,20%,30% from each move??? This question is bugging me. Remember some of our profit will be washed away from the fall of market. I have such experience. Recently,I had to lose a portion of my profit because of the trades I made during the fall.............

But looking at the long term trend,I am not impressed about earning 200% or 100% yearly profit anymore in coming year from any stocks like we used to do back in 2007-2008,however beautiful and sexy it seems. Though,as a TA,I shouldn't think like that. TA should always fly for the sky!!

It looks like now is the time to pay back DSE. DSE is eying at the profit that we made over the years,and want them back............... 
:mrgreen: 

But that is not gonna happen with us 
;) Careful and calculated steps can save us from the rage of DSE. But if someone is "buying because someone else has said "so",well.............................."

QUICK-TRADE: mrtq13 (31-10-2008)

I am thinking about the longer term trend now. Just last night,I observed that DSE has changed its trend. Now it is in strong downtrend(from longer term range). So,our strategy should change. If we trade in short term range,we should be quick to trade-be it about profit taking or about lose taking.............You see,last trend of Aug to Oct was a short one. You can say,it was one month trend. Now,we have to look for the new another newtrend,which may also be another one month trend or even two months. But we must not expect the new uptrend to last more than a year,as we are in downtrend in long term trend. So,I hope TAs are understanding that strategy should be changed now. We are in new front,and should adopt new weapons to win the war..............

So,for me,the strategy is simple : go for quick trades. Because long term uptrend is gone..................It doesn't look like DSE has such strength that it will be able to go above 3500 range soon. If it doesn't trade above that range,well,we should be concerned............

Good indicators for such short term situation is : oscillators..............!!!

BUY-AND-HOLD?--mrtq13 (31-10-2008)

I love to look at the bigger picture. And If I look at the bigger picture of DSE,I see DSE is in downtrend in long trend. The index is trading below 200 MA. Index is heavily MA sensitive.The big uptrend that started since 2006 is now gone. This may be for temporary. But this has an impact on our trading. Index is in downtrend. This means,we can't expect "Buy/Hold" strategy to workable in this downward index. But we can do better buisness by swinging. Because Index doesn't go straight down. It will pause and go up for a while like we have witnessed from 19th Aug to 6th Oct. This is short term uptrend in long term downtrend. This is a good news for FA lovers. As they can find many undervalued stocks in coming years in DSE,if this long term range of downtrend continues............

But if DSE has to break the downtrend that it started in the long term range,then it has to go above 3200 range with very high volume. Coming years will tell us what is gonna happen...............

By the way,by long term,TA means more than one year's range.................And if you look at the index move below,you may clearly see that trend has reversed in long term range. But we can trade in short term range happily every now and then. But the so called "buy/hold" strategy-well,gone are the days when our Grandfathers used to marry four women............Time has changed,so should we......

SOME GUIDELINES: mrtq13 (31-10-2008)

Hello,

I don't have to think,as I am a system trader.............Look around you. In this very forum,there are confusion and chaos regarding what is going on. Just looking at this forum,you can easily understand market's situation-
chaos.............This is the greatest thing about stock market. Not all come to the same conclusion regarding rise and fall at the same time,even if all are of same genre.........Good,because if we all agreed regarding a move,then either stock market would go down to zero level by falling or rise upto extreme level.............

In this very forum,if you check the posts of last JUN-JUL-AUG,you will see many were very hopeful about market move at the beginning of JUN/JUL,that market will turn upwards. But as the market went down and down,all hope were gone. The most positive ppl either became the most negative or became silent later. However,in the mean time,many lost their money.............This shows,not the decisions of all reflects market's actual direction.
That is why,TAs say,"consult the market regarding the market............." This means if market is falling,you should agree with the fact that it is falling. And if market is rising,you should agree that market is rising.........You must not impose your own beliefs,hopes,ideas,whims,logic and thoughts on market's move. It is difficult to do that. But that is the skill that TAs have to acquire with the course of time.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now is the time for the "preparation to re-enter the market". Ok,I think I am misunderstood by this line : "preparation to re-enter the market". But this is not a line that has any confusion. All TAs have a word in their dictionary,called,"watch". I think,"watch" word is used in the context that "watch" the market so you can 
enter into it at the suitable setup. Watch is synonymous to "buy",but not "buy" in the actual sense. Now this "buy" can be tomorrow,or after one month. But you still have to "watch",which for me is "preparation to re-enter the market" or "buy back time" or "re-entry time". "Watch" or "prepare to buy back" the market everyday. That is what we should do now......................Right?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now I am a system trader. I have some criteria to meet regarding entry/exit in the market. And I follow them. Following them has been more blessing for me in trading,then following the advice of the coolest traders/analysts of all forums,groups,media,newspaper. So,I follow my indicators. But this is just my own way to trade............

My system will automatically tell me when to enter the market. And I will enter the market then. Nothing to worry for me. Yeap,my system could go wrong from time to time. But I know and have seen that it gives right signal more often than it gives wrong signals. So,I don't mind or get upset of its some wrong signals..............If things go wrong,I would quickly exit so I can save my capital from the disaster of wrong entry. Because I know next time I may be right. So,if I lose 8% this time,I will be able to make at least 9% next time when the market is bullish. And this is how DSE is. You must agree with this. DSE is a great swinger at the moment. It is good for short term swing trade. Gone are the days when DSE used to turn around after going for a small pullback..............So,those old technique of holding tight to your stocks won't work anymore now.You take profit whenever you can-that is how you have to go now..............

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have been bearish about the market since the first week of this October. Sometimes,I got bullish and got bluffed,but most of the time I was bearish. I am still bearish. But that doesn't mean,I won't trade if the market shows bullishness. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding past move-Unusuallly Big volume has been killing DSE's trend this year. And 590 crore was an unusually big volume for DSEindex. Something strange happened there. No,it was not strange. It was a straightforward exit signal. The uptrend was killed over there.

Now,as a TA,I should look for a new uptrend in the market. The question is : when are we gonna see another uptrend. That my friend,only God can say. I'm no God.

So,how are we gonna enter? Market will tell us. Let the market tell us! Let the market go for some "strong" buy mode. Let all stocks go down to a buyable level. Let the ones that exited on 590 cr day come back.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regarding volume move of current situations,you will get a lot of "experts" talking about that. So,let me not put my thoughts here................

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would like to take the opportunity to remind the TAs here :

1. Always go with the trend. If trend is down,stand aside. Only trade in uptrend.
2. Big volume always kills a trend-be it up or down.(example : 
12/Oct/08 and 8/Jun/08..........happy trading!!)
3. "Watch" for a new opportunity to "Buy". Because stock market must turn up from down moves...
4. When you are imposing your own logic,reasoning,thoughts,arguments,hopes on the market,that means you are fighting against the market. And you can't win by fighting against stock market. Let the market decide what to do next,not you.
5. Buy on strength,not weakness. This works best. Anti-trend trading works. But many times,this kills the peace of mind.

Take care!! 

** By the way,above writings are aimed at TAs only(ones that really understand TAs). If you aren't a TA,don't bother to understand them...............You will get confused!!